The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding dropped sharply by 18.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours, falling from 41.6% to 23.5%, according to Polymarket data as of 2026-07-17. This decline in the YES contract price contrasts with whale trading activity, which saw a net inflow of $10K into YES positions during the same period.
Whales accounted for $18K in buy volume and $8K in sell volume across 73 unique whale traders, indicating that despite the falling market odds, large players were accumulating YES contracts. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $17K, highlighting that whale activity outpaced overall market turnover.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement signals a disconnect between large traders and broader market sentiment. While the general market sentiment pulled the estimated probability of Max Martin attending the wedding down significantly, whales appeared to position themselves for a higher likelihood of attendance.
With a lifetime market volume of $137K and 344 unique traders, this market has attracted considerable interest, but the conflicting signals from price and whale flow suggest a complex dynamic in trader expectations.
Overall, the sharp price drop combined with whale buying activity points to a contested outlook on Max Martin’s attendance at Taylor Swift’s wedding, underscoring uncertainty in this prediction market.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +18.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 23.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $10K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 73 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $17K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 344 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.