The probability that NVIDIA will be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 rose sharply by 36.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, with the YES price climbing from 7.0% to 43.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a sudden surge in market expectations for NVIDIA’s valuation ranking.
Whale activity confirmed the price move, with a net inflow of $5K into YES contracts. The total whale buy volume was $28K, closely matched by $24K in sell volume, across 40 unique whale traders. This alignment between whale flow and price indicates that larger, sophisticated participants are supporting the shift in odds rather than pushing back against it.
Overall trading volume on Polymarket for this contract reached $28K in the last 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $117K and involving 196 unique traders. The combined price surge and whale buying suggest a meaningful reassessment of NVIDIA’s market cap prospects by the prediction market community.
This coordinated move by whales and the broader market signals a significant change in sentiment about NVIDIA’s positioning in the global market cap rankings as the July 31 date approaches.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674076 |
| 24h price change | +36.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 43.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 7.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $28K / $24K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 40 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $28K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 196 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.