The Polymarket contract asking whether zero ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any date by July 31 saw its YES price surge 15.8 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 7.0% to 22.8% as of July 17. This represents a notable repricing of the market’s odds in a single day.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, with 43 unique whales participating and net whale flow of $7K directed into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $19K while whale sell volume was $11K, indicating a net increase in demand from large traders. Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $15K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $198K across 132 unique traders.
The simultaneous rise in price and whale net buying suggests that large investors are reinforcing the market’s updated odds rather than opposing them. This combined price and flow pattern signals growing confidence among whales that the scenario of no ships transiting Hormuz by the deadline is gaining plausibility in the prediction market.
| Market | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2696760 |
| 24h price change | +15.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 22.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 7.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.8% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $7K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $19K / $11K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 43 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 132 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.