The Polymarket contract asking whether the next GPT model released by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall sharply by 18.0 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from 53.5% to 35.5%. This dramatic repricing contrasts with whale activity, which moved against the price trend by net buying $3K into YES positions during the same period.
Whales accounted for $6K in buy volume and $4K in sell volume across 36 unique wallets, reflecting active engagement despite the market’s negative shift. Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume on the contract was $6K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $28K and involving 143 unique traders overall.
Notably, the Polymarket Breaking feed’s YES price of 35.5% diverges significantly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 72.5%, highlighting a split between on-chain valuation and the current market price. This divergence suggests differing views on the likelihood of the GPT model achieving the 1480 benchmark by the end of 2026.
The combined picture of a sharp market price drop alongside whale net inflows into YES contracts signals a complex dynamic where larger traders are increasing exposure despite falling prices. This tension between market price and whale flow implies uncertainty or a reassessment of probabilities among different participant groups on this question.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 35.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 53.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 72.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 36 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 143 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.