The market on whether Count Binface will secure second place in the Clacton by-election saw a sharp revaluation over the past 24 hours, with the YES price declining 26.5 percentage points from 91.5% to 65.0%. This move signals a significant reduction in market confidence that Binface will finish in the runner-up spot.
Interestingly, this price drop occurred alongside whale activity that diverged from the market direction. Despite the falling odds, whales continued to net buy YES contracts, indicating a disconnect between large traders’ flow and the overall price trend. The $11K in 24-hour volume reflects active trading but not enough to sustain the prior high probability.
This divergence suggests that while the broader market is reassessing Binface’s chances downward, large traders are potentially positioning against the price move or anticipating a different outcome than the crowd. The combined picture of a steep price drop and whale buying highlights a market in flux around this election outcome.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +26.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 65.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 91.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.