The probability that the next GPT model by OpenAI will debut with a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026, dropped sharply by 22.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from 53.0% to 31.0%.
Despite this significant price decline, whale activity diverged from the tape. Over the same period, 34 unique whales netted $3K into YES contracts, with $6K in buy volume outpacing $3K in sell volume. This flow contrasts with the market’s downward price adjustment, indicating that large traders are increasing their exposure to the YES outcome even as prices suggest diminished odds.
The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this market was $5K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $28K, with 141 unique traders participating overall. Notably, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price for the YES contract stands at 72.5%, a stark difference from Polymarket’s current 31.0% price, highlighting a disconnect between on-chain valuations and market pricing.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement suggests conflicting interpretations of the GPT model’s likelihood to reach the threshold score by the end of 2026. While the broader market is pricing in a lower chance, whales are accumulating YES positions, potentially signaling confidence or a strategic stance contrary to retail sentiment.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2659165 |
| 24h price change | +22.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 31.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 53.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 72.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 34 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 141 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.