The market question “Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?” saw its YES price tumble 31.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 93.5% to 62.0% as of July 10, 2026. This steep decline reflects a significant reappraisal of Binface’s prospects.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price move: despite the sharp fall in YES price, whale flow did not support this shift, indicating a net withdrawal from YES contracts. Meanwhile, total Polymarket volume for the contract reached $11K within the same period, suggesting active participation but dominated by retail or smaller traders rather than large holders pushing the price.
The divergence between price and whale flow highlights a disconnect between large investors and the overall market sentiment. While smaller participants appear to be selling off confidence in Binface’s second-place chances, whales are not following suit, potentially reflecting differing information or risk appetite.
This combination of a dramatic price drop alongside opposing whale behavior signals uncertainty and a contested outlook on Binface’s electoral performance in Clacton.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +31.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 62.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 93.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.