The probability that Count Binface will secure second place in the Clacton by-election fell sharply by 35.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, moving from 93.5% down to 58.5% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 10, 2026. This drastic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Despite the sharp decline in YES contract price, large whale traders showed flow that diverged from this price movement, indicating they did not follow the market’s bearish repricing. The 24-hour volume on this market was $11K, suggesting moderate trading activity amid the volatility.
This divergence between whale flow and price suggests a disconnect between the tape and the largest traders’ actions. While the market sharply reduced the implied probability of Binface finishing second, whales appear to be resisting this drop, possibly signaling confidence in the outcome that the broader market is discounting.
The combined picture of a steep price fall coupled with opposing whale flow highlights an unsettled consensus on this election result within Polymarket. The market is undergoing rapid reevaluation, but the largest traders are not fully aligned with the price drop, underscoring the complexity of current expectations for the Clacton by-election race.
| Market | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2840115 |
| 24h price change | +35.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 93.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.