“Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” YES price jumps 30.4 pp to 97.4% on Polymarket

The probability of “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” surged by 30.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from an estimated 67.0% to 97.4%. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment toward the event occurring.

Whale activity aligned with this price move, as 46 unique whales contributed $9K in buy volume and $3K in sell volume, resulting in a net $6K inflow into YES contracts over the same period. The total 24-hour market volume was $10K, indicating that whale trades accounted for a substantial portion of the day’s activity.

Despite the sharp increase in the Polymarket YES price, it notably diverges from the Polydata on-chain mid-price, which remains at 68.0%. This gap suggests that the Polymarket Breaking feed, which shows the 97.4% figure, is capturing a more immediate or consensus-driven reassessment of the event’s likelihood than on-chain data alone.

With a lifetime market volume of $27K and 211 unique traders, this market has attracted moderate participation, but the recent whale-driven surge points to increased conviction or new information impacting expectations. The combined price action and whale flow confirm a strong market consensus that the declassification of UFO files by the specified date is highly probable, marking a notable shift in the contract’s outlook within a single day.

View this event on Polymarket →

Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.