The probability that any AI model will reach a 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026, surged 20.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 30.0% to 50.5%.
This sharp repricing was backed by whale activity, with net inflows of $3K into YES contracts. Whales bought $6K and sold $3K in the last day, involving 29 unique whale traders. Polymarket recorded $5K in 24-hour volume, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $40K across 148 unique traders.
Notably, the Polymarket YES price at 50.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain midprice of 87.0%, indicating a significant divergence between the platform price and on-chain data.
Whale flows aligned with the price move, confirming that larger traders supported the increased odds rather than opposing the market trend. This coordinated price and flow dynamic points to growing conviction among whales that an AI breakthrough in Math Arena scoring is more likely within the given timeframe.
The combined surge in price and whale buying activity signals heightened market interest and increased confidence in AI performance advancements, though the wide gap between Polymarket and on-chain prices suggests ongoing uncertainty about the odds.
| Market | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1831671 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 50.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 30.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 87.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 29 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 148 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.