The Polymarket question “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” saw its YES contract price fall sharply by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 67.0% to 47.5% as of July 9, 2026. This represents a significant downward revaluation of the likelihood that Trump will release new UFO files by the deadline.
Contrary to the price decline, whale investors added a net $3K into YES, buying $4K worth of contracts while selling $1K, across 25 unique whales. This flow diverges from the price movement, indicating that large traders were increasing exposure to the outcome even as the market price moved lower. Total trading volume on Polymarket for this market was $6K in the last 24 hours, out of a lifetime volume of $22K with 187 unique traders participating.
Adding complexity, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 47.5% differs markedly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 82.0%, suggesting a gap between the spot market and the aggregated on-chain valuation.
What this means
The divergence between whale buying and the sharp drop in price suggests that large traders are not fully aligned with the broader market sentiment, possibly anticipating a higher chance of declassification than the price reflects. The split between Polymarket’s spot price and on-chain mid-price further highlights uncertainty or differing valuations across trading venues. Together, these signals point to a contested market view on the timing of UFO file disclosures by Trump.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2641102 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 47.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 67.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 82.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $4K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 25 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 187 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.