Polymarket’s market asking whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 19 saw its YES price surge 26.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 36.5% to 62.5%. This represents a significant shift in market sentiment on the contract’s outcome within a single day.
The $14K volume traded during this period indicates active participation, while on-chain data shows whale flows moved in alignment with the price increase, confirming that larger investors matched the market’s bullish repricing. This concurrence between whale activity and the rising odds suggests a broad consensus on the increased likelihood of the extension event.
The alignment of whale flows with the sharp price move strengthens the signal that the market is responding to new information or changing expectations about Anthropic’s plans. The substantial 26.0 pp increase in the YES contract price points to a marked reassessment of the probability that Claude Fable 5’s paid-plan access will be extended by the mid-July deadline.
Overall, the combination of a large price jump and matching whale activity signals growing confidence in the extension outcome, reflecting a more bullish market view on Anthropic’s intentions within a compressed timeframe.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2898504 |
| 24h price change | +26.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 62.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.