The market “Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?” saw its YES contract price tumble 35.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours, sliding from 82.1% to 46.5% as of July 16.
Despite this steep decline in implied probability, whale activity diverged from the price move, with 49 unique whales net buying $3K into YES contracts during the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $5K, while sell volume was $3K, signaling a net positive flow into YES positions. This contrasts with the overall market sentiment captured by the price drop.
Polymarket’s total volume on this question over the past day was $6K, representing a significant portion of its $54K lifetime volume, with 926 unique traders participating since inception. The divergence between whale flow and price suggests a disconnect between large traders’ bets and the broader market sentiment reflected in the price.
The combined data points to a complex dynamic in expectation around Alibaba’s AI prospects, with the market divided on its future standing.
| Market | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2431240 |
| 24h price change | +35.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 46.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 82.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 46.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $5K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 49 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 926 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.