The probability that any AI model will reach a 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026, jumped sharply by 21.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, climbing from 27.0% to 48.5%. This surge in optimism came with whale activity that reinforced the price move, as net whale flow into YES contracts totaled $2K within a $6K 24-hour volume.
Whales accounted for $5K in buy volume against $3K in sells across 33 unique whale traders, signaling a clear directional push alongside the price increase. The broader market includes 143 unique traders and a lifetime volume of $38K, indicating sustained interest in this AI-related event.
Interestingly, the Polymarket breaking YES price at 48.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 41.0%. This divergence suggests a premium in the market price driven by active whale buying and recent momentum.
The whale flow moving in tandem with the price rise confirms that larger traders are backing the increasing likelihood of this AI milestone. The combined price and whale flow data points to growing conviction in the market that an AI model reaching a Math Arena Score of 1550 by the end of 2026 is becoming a more probable outcome.
| Market | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1831671 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 48.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 27.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 41.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $5K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 33 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 143 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.