The market on whether there will be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026 saw a dramatic reversal, with the YES price falling 51.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours to 11.0%, down from 62.5% roughly a day earlier. This sharp drop signals a major shift in collective expectations about the outcome.
Notably, whale activity diverged from this price move. Despite the steep decline in odds, whales net bought $6K into YES contracts, with $13K in buy volume against $8K in sell volume across 70 unique whale traders.
Polymarket saw $14K in volume over the last 24 hours on this market, contributing to a lifetime volume of $74K with 324 unique traders participating. The divergence between whale flow and price highlights a complex dynamic where institutional or large-scale participants are taking a different stance than the broader market.
It underscores the importance of monitoring both price action and large trader behavior to fully understand market sentiment on this question.
| Market | Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2646412 |
| 24h price change | +51.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 11.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 62.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 11.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $13K / $8K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 70 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 324 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.