The probability that an AI model will reach a 1550 Math Arena score by December 31, 2026, climbed sharply by 17.5 percentage points within a single day on Polymarket, rising from 27.0% to 44.5%.
This repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment, supported by whale activity that moved in concert with the price increase. Over the last 24 hours, 36 unique whales traded this contract, contributing $6K in buy volume and $4K in sell volume, resulting in a net flow of $2K into YES positions.
The total 24-hour volume on this market was $6K, which is notable compared to its lifetime volume of $38K and 143 unique traders overall. This concentrated activity suggests a renewed conviction among larger traders backing the possibility of AI models achieving this benchmark within the given timeframe.
Whale flow aligning with the price move indicates that the repricing was supported by informed participants rather than speculative noise. This combined price and flow dynamic points to a meaningful market reassessment of the likelihood of AI reaching advanced math performance levels by the end of 2026.
| Market | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1831671 |
| 24h price change | +17.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 44.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 27.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 41.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 36 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 143 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.