Polymarket’s “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” market saw its YES contract price fall sharply by 22.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 67.5% to 45.5%. This notable repricing came despite whale activity that moved counter to the price trend, with a net $3K flowing into YES contracts over the same period.
Whales bought $4K and sold $1K in YES contracts, engaging 23 unique whale wallets. The total 24-hour volume on the market was $6K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $22K across 179 unique traders. The divergence between whale flow and market price is underscored by the flag indicating that whale activity diverged from the price move.
Further adding complexity, the Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 76.5%, significantly higher than the Polymarket Breaking feed price of 45.5%. This gap highlights differing signals from on-chain data versus market trading prices, suggesting uncertainty or differing valuations among traders and whales.
The combined picture of a sharp price drop amid continued whale buying suggests a contested market narrative, where large traders are accumulating YES positions even as the broader market reaction pushes prices down.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2641102 |
| 24h price change | +22.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 45.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 67.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 76.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $4K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 23 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 179 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.