The market “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?” saw its YES contract price plunge 19.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 71.0% to 51.5% as of July 15. This sharp decline contrasts with whale activity, which showed a net inflow of $5K into YES positions during the same period. Whales bought $9K worth of YES contracts while selling $3K, across 42 unique whale traders.
Overall, the Polymarket 24-hour volume for this contract was $8K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $405K with 1,618 unique traders participating. The divergence between whale flow and price movement indicates that despite the tape pushing YES odds significantly lower, large players increased their exposure to the YES outcome.
The decline in YES price represents a substantial reduction in market confidence that Spider-Man will top 2026 box office charts, but the whale buying hints at a more complex dynamic behind the scenes. Together, these signals highlight a split market view rather than a unified trend in this high-profile entertainment prediction market.
| Market | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 678414 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 51.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 71.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 51.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 42 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,618 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.