The Polymarket contract asking whether the US will charge fees for Hormuz by December 31, 2026, experienced a dramatic shift in odds over the past 24 hours. The YES price fell 17.0 percentage points, dropping from 27.5% to 10.5% as of July 15, signaling a significant market repricing of the event’s likelihood.
This sharp decline in the probability assigned by the market contrasts with whale activity, which diverged from the price move. Despite the steep drop in YES price, whale traders reduced their exposure to YES contracts rather than buying into the lower prices, indicating selling pressure at the high-volume end. Polymarket recorded $49K in trading volume on this market during the same period, reflecting moderate investor engagement amid the price change.
This disconnect highlights potential uncertainty or conflicting sentiment surrounding the US fees on Hormuz question.
Overall, the 17.0pp price fall combined with opposing whale flow points to a contested market view on this outcome, with substantial repositioning underway but no clear consensus among major players.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907324 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 27.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $49K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.