The Polymarket contract asking whether the US will charge Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026, saw its YES price collapse sharply by 44.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 51.5% to 6.7% as of the latest Polymarket Breaking feed snapshot on July 14.
This dramatic repricing stands in stark contrast to on-chain whale activity, which flowed strongly into YES positions. Whale net flow over the same period amounted to $39K, driven by $56K in whale purchases against $16K in sales. A total of 86 unique whales participated in this trading surge, out of 154 unique traders recorded on the market’s lifetime data. Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket reached $60K, nearly matching the lifetime market volume of $75K, highlighting a surge of interest around this question.
Notably, the whale flow diverges from the price action, flagged explicitly in the data, as whales increased exposure to YES while the market price declined. Additionally, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 6.7% differs significantly from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 50.0%, underscoring a disconnect between the reported market price and on-chain data.
The combination of a steep drop in YES price alongside substantial whale buying points to conflicting signals within this market. While retail and general market sentiment appears to be pricing out the likelihood of US charges on Hormuz fees, whale investors are increasing their bets on YES.
| Market | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2907312 |
| 24h price change | +44.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 6.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 50.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $39K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $56K / $16K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 86 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $60K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 154 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.