The Polymarket contract “Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” saw its YES price plunge 62.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 95.4% to 32.9% according to the Polymarket Breaking feed on July 14.
Despite this sharp decline in price, whale activity moved in the opposite direction, with a net $31K flowing into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $59K, while sell volume was $28K, reflecting a strong net bullish flow from 74 unique whales. This divergence between the price drop and whale net inflow is marked by the flow_diverges_from_price flag, highlighting a rare disconnect between large trader behavior and the market tape.
Overall market volume for the day stood at $44K, with lifetime volume on this market totaling $99K and 174 unique traders participating. Notably, the on-chain Polydata mid-price for YES contracts remained near 96.4%, far above the Polymarket Breaking feed price of 32.9%, underscoring the discrepancy between on-chain data and the current Polymarket price.
This split between whale net inflows and the dramatic price drop suggests conflicting signals within the market. While the broader market sharply repriced the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz downward, large traders maintained significant exposure betting on the event.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +62.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 32.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $31K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $59K / $28K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 74 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $44K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 174 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.