The probability that the US will reissue Iran oil sanction relief by July 31 dropped sharply by 23.5 percentage points on Polymarket in the past 24 hours, falling from 33.5% to just 10.0%.
This steep decline in YES contract price came amid a divergence between whale flow and market movement, a rare dynamic where large traders’ activity did not confirm the price adjustment. Despite the dramatic drop in odds, whale flow moved against the price, signaling net activity away from the prevailing market sentiment.
Trading volume over the 24-hour window reached $14K, reflecting moderate engagement in this politically sensitive market. The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while the broader market sharply reduced expectations for sanction relief, some large traders maintained a contrary stance.
This disconnect between whale behavior and the tape highlights a nuanced market environment where price shifts can be driven by retail or smaller participants, while whales position themselves differently. The combined picture points to ongoing uncertainty and contested views about the likelihood of US reissuing Iran oil sanction relief by the end of July 2026.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +23.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.