The probability that Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged by 19.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 68.5% to 88.0% on Polymarket. This sharp repricing coincided with $2K in net whale buying on the YES side, confirming the market’s bullish shift. Whale buy volume totaled $2K against $116 in sales, spread across 20 unique whales, signaling coordinated interest rather than scattered activity.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for the contract reached $10K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $92K and involving 220 unique traders, underscoring sustained engagement. Notably, the PM Breaking YES price of 88.0% differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 93.5%, indicating some variation in pricing across data sources.
The alignment of strong whale buying with a significant price increase suggests confidence among large traders in Max Martin’s attendance at the event. This combined on-chain flow and price action reflect a growing conviction within the market that the outcome is increasingly likely, driving the contract closer to a near-certain outcome.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +19.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 88.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $2K / $116 |
| Unique whales (24h) | 20 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 220 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.