The market on whether Tayte Willows will win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election surged sharply, with the YES price rising 48.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours from 50.0% to 99.0% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity tracked alongside the price move, with a net $3K flowing into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $7K, outpacing $4K of sell volume, across 19 unique whale traders. This alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests that large traders supported the rapid increase in confidence for Willows’ victory.
Despite the surge on Polymarket’s YES price, the Polydata on-chain mid-price stands at 78.0%, indicating some discrepancy between the trading tape and on-chain valuation. Total 24-hour volume on the market was $5K, with lifetime market volume at $7K and 31 unique traders participating overall.
The combined picture of a nearly doubled price and whale reinforcement signals a strong market consensus building quickly around Tayte Willows’ chances in the by-election. The divergence between Polymarket’s YES price and Polydata’s on-chain mid-price highlights ongoing volatility and differing valuation perspectives in the market.
| Market | Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2773293 |
| 24h price change | +48.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 50.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 78.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 19 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 31 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.