The probability that Bitcoin will dip to $62,500 in July surged 20.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, rising from an estimated 74.0% to 94.5% as of July 13. This sharp repricing reflects increased confidence among traders that such a price drop will occur within the month.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, with 24 unique whales buying $13K and selling $4K in YES contracts, resulting in a net $9K flow into the YES side. The 24-hour volume for this market matched whale buy volume at $13K, indicating that large traders were a significant force behind the price shift.
Despite the Polymarket YES price reaching 94.5%, on-chain Polydata shows a mid-price of 75.0%, highlighting a notable divergence between the on-market price and the broader on-chain valuation. The lifetime market volume stands at $17K with 48 unique traders participating, suggesting that recent whale-driven momentum has accelerated market activity.
This combined surge in price and whale buying suggests growing conviction among large traders that Bitcoin will hit or fall below $62,500 by the end of July. The alignment of whale flow with the sharp price increase signals that the market is currently pricing in a significant probability of this event occurring.
| Market | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2861255 |
| 24h price change | +20.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 94.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 74.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 75.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $13K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 24 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 48 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.