The market “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?” saw its YES contract price collapse by 20.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from an estimated 22.9% to just 2.5% as of July 13. This dramatic drop signals a swift reassessment of the likelihood of this event by retail traders on Polymarket.
However, whale flow diverged markedly from the price movement, indicating that large traders did not align with the broad market’s sell-off. Despite the sharp decline in the YES price, whales did not increase net exposure to the YES side, creating a notable split between price action and large-volume trading behavior. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $8K, reflecting moderate trading interest amid the volatility.
This divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while the general market sharply lowered the probability of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 11, bigger traders either maintained their positions or refrained from adding to the downward momentum.
The combined picture of a steep price drop coupled with neutral whale flow highlights a complex market dynamic. It underscores the importance of monitoring both price changes and large trader behavior to understand evolving sentiment and confidence levels in prediction markets.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835627 |
| 24h price change | +20.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 2.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 22.9% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.