The Polymarket contract “Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?” saw its YES probability surge 23.3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 65.3% to 88.6%. This strong repricing coincided with whale activity that supported the move, as 34 unique whales contributed a net $1K inflow into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $5K, slightly outpacing $4K in sell volume.
The 24-hour trading volume for this market was $5K, a fraction of the lifetime volume of $131K, indicating a concentrated burst of interest. Despite this sharp rise on Polymarket’s live feed, the Polydata on-chain mid-price remains lower at 74.0%, highlighting a divergence between the market’s real-time price and the aggregated on-chain data.
This alignment of whale flow with the price increase suggests that larger traders are reinforcing the market’s shift toward a higher likelihood of Brittany Mahomes attending the wedding. With 306 unique traders participating overall, the move reflects a focused consensus emerging among significant market participants. The combined price and flow data indicate a clear market update rather than a transient spike, underscoring growing conviction behind the YES outcome in this event.
| Market | Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941757 |
| 24h price change | +23.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 88.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 65.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 74.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $5K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 34 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 306 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.