The market asking whether Brittany Mahomes will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding saw its YES contract price surge from 70.8% to 87.5% over the past 24 hours, a jump of 16.7 percentage points. This sharp upward move in the implied probability was accompanied by aligned whale activity, with 35 unique whales contributing to a net $2K inflow into YES positions.
Whale buy volume totaled $6K against $4K in sales, indicating a net increase in bullish bets on attendance. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $6K, a modest slice of its lifetime volume of $131K, which involves 306 unique traders overall.
Notably, Polymarket’s breaking price of 87.5% contrasts with Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 74.0%, suggesting either rapid late momentum or some price divergence between on-chain data and the platform’s live market. However, the aligned whale flow with price action confirms that large traders supported this repricing rather than opposing it.
This combination of a substantial price increase and reinforcing whale flow signals a strong shift in market consensus about Brittany Mahomes’ attendance at the wedding. The market’s confidence has notably increased within a single day, reflecting new information or sentiment driving a reappraisal of this outcome’s likelihood.
| Market | Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941757 |
| 24h price change | +16.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 70.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 74.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $2K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 35 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 306 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.