The market for “Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?” saw a dramatic shift as its YES price dropped sharply by 51.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 67.5% to 16.5%, according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 12, 2026. This steep decline in implied probability stands in stark contrast to whale activity, which diverged from the price movement.
Whales collectively increased their net exposure to YES contracts by $36K during the same period, executing $76K in buys against $40K in sells. The market recorded a total 24-hour volume of $122K, with 115 unique whales participating, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $378K and a total of 703 unique traders.
The divergence between whale flow and price is notable: while the market price sharply discounted Bilibili Gaming’s chances, whale investors were adding to their YES positions. This suggests a split in sentiment between larger, potentially more informed players and broader market participants.
Additionally, the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 16.5% differs from the on-chain Polydata YES mid-price of 27.0%, highlighting some discrepancy in pricing across sources.
Overall, the combination of a steep price drop alongside significant whale buying signals a complex market dynamic. While the broader market has sharply lowered expectations for Bilibili Gaming’s MSI victory, whales appear to be positioning for a potential rebound or undervaluation in the current price.
| Market | Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2555428 |
| 24h price change | +51.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 16.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 67.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 27.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $36K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $76K / $40K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 115 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $122K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 703 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.