The market on “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?” surged sharply by 89.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours, jumping from an estimated 3.5% to 92.9% at the latest Polymarket Breaking update. This dramatic shift reflects a rapid reassessment of the event’s likelihood.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, as 52 unique whales contributed to a net $4K inflow into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $9K against $4K in sells, indicating strong buying momentum among large traders. Overall 24-hour volume on the market was $9K, with lifetime volume reaching $15K and 114 unique traders participating since inception.
The combined price surge and whale flow suggest a consensus shift among both retail and large investors toward expecting Iran to successfully target shipping on the specified date. The alignment of whale activity with the price move reinforces the conviction behind the rapid repricing, signaling a significant update in market sentiment rather than isolated speculation.
The marked increase in probability and concurrent whale buying indicate strong market consensus on the event’s occurrence.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +89.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 3.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 52 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 114 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.